In border communities like Ciudad Juárez, there’s uncertainty about what is at stake in terms of migration, economy and border security with Trump back in the presidency of the United States
By Raúl Flores / La Verdad Juárez
Translation: El Paso Matters
Ciudad Juárez – Faced with the new presidency of Donald Trump, Mexico is expecting changes that may arise from the new government, from immigration to economic policies. The question is: What can be expected for the country’s northern border?
During his election campaign, Trump addressed Mexico on numerous occasions, threatening additional and increased tariffs, renegotiating trade agreements, and promising anti-immigrant policies with repercussions for Mexico.
Against this backdrop, experts on border and binational relations discussed the impact of Trump’s return to the White House on border communities such as Ciudad Juárez.
For now, border cities should prepare for a possible “boom” of migrants seeking to reach the border to take advantage of the current asylum system before Trump arrives at the White House in January, said Emilio López Reyes, a research professor from the College of Chihuahua.
“Every time Trump launches new policies, there are caravans,” he said. “We are waiting for the caravans right now, so we have to be ready for this.”
Are border cities prepared for this?
The level of migratory flow has decreased by more than half in recent months, according to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection. From June to today, the number of border apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border has fallen dramatically, as have immigration court cases.
The capacity of the Somos Uno Por Juárez shelter network, comprising 13 shelters throughout the city, is at 45% capacity, according to its director, Francisco González.
It is still too early to know exactly where migrants coming through Mexico will arrive at the border, since that depends largely on the routes that the groups of coyotes who are in charge of transporting the migrants to the north are following, López said. What is certain is that “fear moves” people to migrate, and these coyotes will use it to their advantage to mobilize large numbers of people throughout the country, he added.
“Unfortunately, migrants continue to be the currency,” said Oscar Rodríguez Chávez, a border researcher at the Colegio de la Frontera Norte.
Although Rodríguez also predicts an increase in the migrant population that will arrive at the border, he considers that this is still somewhat uncertain. It is possible that the barriers or containment that have been in place in southern Mexico to prevent people from reaching the border with the United States will continue.
This is where migrant smuggling networks come in, he said, seeking to increase their profits by encouraging migrants to try to reach the northern border as quickly as possible with the idea that their passage will soon be permanently closed.
“At the end of the day, with the increase in barriers and anti-immigrant policies against asylum, what increases are the profits of criminal groups,” Rodríguez said.
He said that Trump’s policies during this administration will likely largely impact the undocumented migrant population that is already settled in Mexico to await their chance at asylum, Rodríguez said.
“It looks difficult (the outlook for migrants)” said Rodríguez. “Asylum is going to be much more complicated.”
During the campaign, Trump promised to strengthen border security and deport millions of undocumented immigrants from his country.
‘Trump doesn’t want us’
The most worrying thing is the issue of security, López said, adding that migrants will be at risk because although the immigration infrastructure in Juárez is prepared to receive a sudden surge of new migrants, it is not prepared in the same way to provide humanitarian aid to so many people.
Trump may very well make good on his promise to dismantle the CBP One appointment program implemented by the Biden administration, López said. It’s very possible that Trump would implement a new version of the so-called Remain in Mexico policy, or the Migrant Protection Protocol program that forced thousands of migrants to remain in Mexico while awaiting their asylum process in the United States.
“That is the latent risk that I do see, that CBP One ends and that there is an MPP 3.0, and that the discourse of security protections for migrants goes away and there is not going to be help for the shelters, there is not going to be food. It’s going to get complicated,” López warns.
That is the fear that Angie Romero Vargas, a 22-year-old Colombian, is living with since the election. Romero sat in the migrant dining room of the Juárez Cathedral with other migrants, many who had worried looks when they saw Trump win.
Romero Vargas has been in Mexico for two months waiting for her CBP One appointment. With the news of Trump’s victory, she hopes to obtain the appointment with her partner before January.
For Alexander Hernández, a 39-year-old Venezuelan who arrived in Juárez via train just a few days before the election, said Trump’s victory is “the end of us, practically.”
“Trump is going to kick us all out of the country,” he said.
With concern in his voice, Hernandez said he hopes his CBP One appointment, which he has been waiting for since March with his wife and four children, will arrive soon.
Edimer Rodriguez, a 49-year-old Venezuelan, said he hopes that Trump will take migrant labor into account.
“Donald Trump does not like immigrants, but I wish he saw that our labor force in the United States is too important, because we drive the United States in everything,” he said.
Rodríguez recently arrived in Juárez, but he has been waiting for a CBP One appointment for eight months. He left Mexico City for the border in the hope that things would move faster here, he said.
Milena Fernández, a 44-year-old Colombian, says she feels “displaced” when she hears Trump will be the next president.
Like the others, she hopes to be on the other side of the border before he takes office, since Trump is “a man with weapons” and she is sure that the first thing he will do is not let anyone else in through the legal avenues that are currently established.
Fernández left Colombia because she was threatened with death by guerrilla groups, so she does not plan to return to her native country, even if she does not manage to enter the United States. However, she has faith in achieving his mission: “Hope is the last thing that is lost.”
Economic dependence between two nations
But what impact might Trump’s presidency have on trade relations with Mexico?
If Mexico continues its economic ties with the U.S., there could be room for economic growth on both sides of the border, said Alejandro Burgués Rodríguez of the Colegio de la Frontera Norte. If the U.S. grows its economy, consequently what it buys from Mexico would grow, which would be advantageous for the local economy, he said.
Additionally, Trump’s relationship with China could benefit Mexico as it could be a primary candidate to supply products that the U.S. stops buying from China.
During his campaign, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on products imported from Mexico if the flow of migration and drugs isn’t slowed or stopped. However, Gasapre Genna, professor and director of the political science department at the University of Texas at El Paso, said he believes it’s highly likely that it was just a campaign strategy rather than a real threat.
Genna said one of the greatest “safeguards” against that type of tariff is that the industry and economy of Texas depend heavily on manufacturing in Mexico — even more than California, Arizona and New Mexico.
Every time Trump, during his last administration, began to “rattle the cage” on trade with Mexico, it was his fellow Texas Republicans who stopped him, Genna said, adding that will continue to happen.
However, there is a possibility that some of the funds that were already allocated under the current administration could be “redirected” to better accommodate Republican interests.
Under President Biden, $600 million was awarded to modernize the Cordova-Americas Bridge. Genna did not rule out the likelihood that Trump might redirect that money to increase border security.
