The Looming Crisis: How Tariff Wars Threaten the Maquiladora System, Border Security, and Decades of Progress
martes, marzo 4, 2025
By José Mario Sánchez Soledad
For over half a century, the maquiladora system has been the backbone of economic stability and security in the U.S.-Mexico border region. Established in 1964, this system was not merely a trade policy but a solution to a geopolitical challenge—providing employment, economic growth, and security on both sides of the border. Now, with the looming 25% tariffs on Mexican goods, this intricate and delicate structure faces existential risk. The repercussions of such a decision could be as destructive as undermining NATO, disrupting relationships and security frameworks that have taken decades to develop.
The Historical and Geopolitical Context of the Border Zone
The U.S.-Mexico border is not just a line on a map; it is a unique economic and regulatory space that has functioned differently from the rest of both nations since its establishment after the Mexican-American War (1848-1851). Over time, the border became a buffer zone, formalized in 1983 by the La Paz Agreement, to regulate movement, trade, and security.
*In the United States, the border zone extends 100 miles from the international border, where Customs and Border Protection (CBP) exercises additional enforcement powers.
*In Mexico, the border zone extends 20 to 30 kilometers, covering major industrial cities such as Tijuana, Mexicali, Ciudad Juárez, Reynosa, and Matamoros, which rely heavily on the maquiladora industry.
This special zone has allowed trade and security policies that are distinct from the rest of each country’s territory. However, the proposed tariffs would destabilize this carefully managed economic ecosystem.
The Maquiladora System: A Security and Economic Imperative
The maquiladora program was born in 1964 out of necessity. After the Bracero Program (1942-1964) ended, thousands of Mexican workers, who had been employed in U.S. agriculture, were forced to return to Mexico, but there were no jobs for them. Unlike central Mexico, where domestic industries thrived in Mexico City, El Bajío, and Monterrey, the border region lacked a strong national industrial base.
To prevent economic collapse and security risks associated with mass unemployment, Mexico and the U.S. collaborated on a mutually beneficial solution: the maquiladora system. This allowed foreign companies—particularly from the U.S.—to set up factories along the border, benefiting from:
*Duty-free importation of raw materials for processing and assembly.
*Lower labor costs while creating stable jobs.
*A controlled economic corridor that prevented mass migration and enhanced regional security.
For decades, this system has ensured stability, turning the border from a potential humanitarian and security crisis into an economic success story.
Why Tariffs Would Destroy the Maquiladora System
The proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican imports would not just impact trade—they would dismantle a system that was designed to maintain stability and security on both sides of the border. Here’s why:
1. Economic Collapse in Border Cities
Border cities like Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana, and Reynosa exist because of the maquiladoras. If tariffs make production unsustainable, many factories will close, leading to:
*Massive job losses in a region that has no alternative industries.
*Severe economic downturn, affecting local businesses, services, and infrastructure.
*A surge in crime and insecurity, as thousands of unemployed workers are left with no options.
2. A Security Crisis for the U.S.
The U.S. has historically understood that a stable Mexico is in America’s best interest. If the maquiladora system collapses, the border will face:
* Increased migration pressure, as workers seek jobs elsewhere, many heading north.
*A rise in organized crime activity, filling the economic void left by legitimate businesses.
*Greater costs for U.S. border security, as instability on the Mexican side increases enforcement needs.
3. Supply Chain Disruptions and Increased Costs for U.S. Businesses
U.S. manufacturers rely on Mexican maquiladoras for components used in automobiles, electronics, and medical devices.
*25% tariffs would increase production costs, forcing companies to either pass those costs to consumers or relocate to other low-cost countries, such as China—which contradicts U.S. efforts to strengthen regional trade.
*Industries that depend on just-in-time production (like auto manufacturing) would face severe disruptions, leading to job losses in the U.S. as well.
Decades of Progress at Risk
The maquiladora system did not emerge overnight. It took decades of bilateral cooperation to develop a system that balanced economic needs with border security. Implementing these tariffs would be as short-sighted as abandoning NATO—both decisions would undermine long-standing alliances and destabilize an entire region.
A sudden and extreme economic shock to the border economy could create a security crisis far greater than the one the U.S. currently faces. Instead of unilateral tariffs, the U.S. and Mexico should strengthen trade relations, modernize the maquiladora program, and ensure that economic stability continues to support border security.
Destroying a system that has maintained peace and prosperity for six decades is not just an economic mistake—it’s a geopolitical disaster in the making.
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José Mario Sánchez Soledad, businessman and historian from Ciudad Juárez and national advisor to Coparmex.
